If you look at the charts of just the Nasdaq and S&P, you probably wouldn’t be too worried about the overall market as both continue to ride their nine day EMAs higher. If you look closer, however, you can see some divergences with price and moneystream that is a bit worrisome. If the nine day EMA does break at some point this week (it’s held the ENTIRE YEAR so far for the Nasdaq), I think there is a very good chance of seeing a sharp, quick move lower of 2-4%. Hopefully, the market could right itself from there but it is probably not something you want to sit through if you have a lot of long positions.

On the other hand, if you look at the chart of the Russell 2000, you probably would be worried. This chart has been lagging for about a month now, both in not being able to challenge 2011 highs like the Nasdaq and S&P did and also moving sideways while the other two indices ground their way higher.

Breath has deteriorated as well over the past few weeks and my breadth indicator is as close as you can be to being on a sell as you can be. If we see anymore selling early next week, it will turn to a sell. What we need to see based on this chart is for the bulls to step back up and show some strength soon. They (the bulls) have been weakening for a week or two now and although we haven’t seen a ton of heavy selling, we’ve seen virtually no heavy buying and that’s the problem.

In terms of setups, this was not a great weekend of scans as I went through my charts. There are still some out there, but the number and quality of setups is certainly not what it was in January. Perhaps that’s telling us something as well. There are a few really, really, really thin names out there that look decent like SVN, BIOS, KH, and STV, but when a $4 stock averages less than 100K volume a day, it is certainly not one that has “buy” written all over it. I am not opposed to entering long positions here even with the market being “iffy”, but just be aware that it is more risky here.

Recommended Posts

moving-average
Charts

Moving Averages for Trading The Swings

Choosing a moving average for swing trading can be tricky. Many swing traders prefer using a higher period setting because the higher it is, the later it will be – so the lower it is, the earlier it will be, and vice versa. You can also use a lower period setting to confirm trend changes – but remember, the higher the period, the later it will be. So, you can’t depend solely on a moving average to be successful at swing trading. The best way to use a moving average for swing trading is to follow a trend. Traders can use this indicator to confirm their trades, as it smooths out price fluctuations and incorporates older data. However, the first and most important thing to remember is that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. A better way to determine a trend is to use the longer-term chart. However, if you’re a new trader, you can also use the short-term chart as a guide. In swing trading, a moving average can be a powerful tool, but it must be […]

SwingTrader
indicator
Charts

Indicators for Swing Trading – What’s Best?

There are several indicators that you can use to make money swing trading. A moving average is a popular indicator, and is used to validate the direction of an asset’s price behavior over a specified period of time. The moving average can be created in two basic styles, simple and exponential. Simple moving averages are the easiest to use and provide the most recent statistics. The exponential version gives you more recent data and is best suited for shorter-term investment stocks. The Donchian Channel is probably the most common and straightforward indicator. It helps you identify buy lows and sell highs. Another tool that can help you find a profitable trade is the OHLC indicator. The Zig Zag indicator will help you find swing highs and lows, but it’s best used in conjunction with price action. While all three indicators are helpful, they won’t make your life easy. You must know how to interpret them properly. Another indicator for swing trading is the Relative Strength Index. This indicator is a trend indicator that shows when an asset is overbought or […]

SwingTrader